NFL TIPS 16/9
MULTI
Cowboys WIN $1.43
Texans WIN $1.23
= $1.86 (Sportsbet – use powerplay)
7 units
Level 2 = $160
Return = $297.6
ANALYSIS:
This Cowboy’s new look offence under 1st year offensive co-ordinator Kellen Moore was incredibly impressive, albeit against a lowly Giants side. This RPO (Run-Pass Option) worked to perfection, with Prescott putting up 405 yards and 4TDs. Whilst we probably won’t see Prescott put up 400+ again, expect another sound offensive performance from the Cowboys on route to a second straight win. Yes it’s a divisional favourite on the road in round 2 but this Cowboys side is very impressive and their defence will be good enough to stifle the Redskins here.
The injury to Nick Foles in week 1 sees rookie Gardner Minshew start at QB for the Jags. KC had a big lead by the time he came into the game so one shouldn’t read too much into the 22-25 and 275 yard statline, and that’s why we have seen the line balloon out from -3 to -8.5. Whilst this is probably a slight over-estimation of the drop-off between QBs, this Texans side is very solid and will bounce back after last weeks loss to the Saints as a FG from 58 yards on the final play of the game sunk them. Simply put the Texans are the better side with the better quarterback and should win this one at home.
LA Rams vs New Orleans Saints – To Score 20 Market
Both Teams To Score 20+
7 Units @$1.90 (TAB)
ANALYSIS:
Goff and the Rams host Brees and the Saints for the first time since last years controversial final. We have two high powered offences going head to head, both of which put up 30 points last week. Goff’s home/away splits are significant and with a limited pre-season for the Rams, look for them to improve after a sluggish game in Round 1. Brees also has a significant difference in his home/away splits when asked to travel to outdoor stadiums, with a QB ranking 10 points lower however the Rams front 7 showed will struggle against the run as we saw them do in week 1. Lots of points will be scored here, and TAB are offering us a ridiculous price on the BTTS 20+ market. The over/under line is set at 51.5 which is a touch low as we have it set at 53.5. The 20+ market should be between 1.50-1.60.
These two sides have met 4 times in since November 2016 and all these games have seen the 20+ market cash, and tomorrow should be no different. Don’t be surprised if this cashes in the 3rd quarter!
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
6 Units @$1.92 (Beteasy/TAB)
ANALYSIS:
This is a serious over-reaction to week 1. The Steelers are a better side than the Seahawks. Yes it was a bad loss to the Patriots, but they will bounce back in style at home here against a Seahawks side that may have escaped with a win in week 1 but there were many worrying signs. This Patriot’s defence is not being given the respect it deserves and is one of the best in the Brady era – they also held the Rams to 3 points in the Superbowl at a neutral value.
The Bengals outgained the Seahawks 429 to 233 despite losing the game. The Seahawks are terrible on the road early in the season, 3-18-1 (and 0-8-1 in their last 9) on the road in September.
The Seahawks have significant problems on both sides of the ball and Pittsburgh are simply the better side, and have less injury concerns. The Steelers get a comfortable win at home.
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
4 Units Same Game multi @$1.72 (Beteasy)
Patriots 1st Quarter Winner
Patriots HT / FT Double
Patriots -4.5 1st Quarter Line
2 Units @$2.03 (Beteasy)
ANALYSIS:
The Patriots come into this game as a 18.5 point favourite, which according to my records is the 4th largest spread of the decade and the largest week-2 line. The last time the Patriots were 17+ point favourites was 2016 against the Jets when they won 41-3 as a 17 point favourite. This is the biggest road favourite in September of all time – with the two previously 18 point favourites (in 1969/70) both covered in shut-out victories.
It’s not hard to see why this line is so big. The Patriots demolished a good Steelers side and add Antonio Brown to the mix, one of the best WRs in the league and play a Dolphins side which gave up 59 points to the Ravens at home.
Historically large double-digit spreads in the NFL favour the underdogs and its hard to see any value on this full game line. The Patriots should absolutely roll the Dolphins here. The Patriots are a strong 1st quarter team and I expect another early dominant start from Tom Brady and co as they will look to wrap this up before HT and then control the came with a run-heavy offense in the second half and close out a comfortable win. Last year we saw the “Miami Miracle” and the Dolphins snatch the game as time expired, but we won’t be seeing a similar result here as the Patriots come away with a clean win.
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