NFL GOD TIPS 23/9
LEVEL 4 MULTI
Bills WIN ($1.39)
Packers WIN ($1.27)
= $1.81 (Beteasy, use Bet boost)
8 units
Level 4 bet = $378.62 (After withdrawing $100 at completion of level 2)
Return = $685.30
HIGH STAKES 10K CHALLENGE OPTION (no cash outs)
Level 4 = $571.39
Return = $1,034.22
This is a very solid Bills side and they have started the season 2-0 with back to back road wins for the 1st time in franchise history. They return home to face the Bengals who come off the back of a hiding against the 49ers. The Bengals gave up 41 points on 8.4 yards per play and showed why they were one of the worst defences in the league last year. I’ve been a big Josh Allen fan since he was drafted and he is developing into a genuine dual-threat QB and has now scored both a passing and rushing TD in 3 straight games (going back to last season). He is just the second player since Michael Vick to do this in the past 50 years. Look for Allen and the Bills to drop another big score on the Bengals here
The Bills defence has been top 10 against both passing and rushing so far this season. Whilst the Bengals are dead last in rushing yards (albeit 2 games in). John Ross and Andy Dalton have put up a lot of yards this year, but these numbers are inflated by plays such as the 66 yard TD with 45 seconds left in last weeks blowout loss. Take away these garbage time stats and the numbers are even more dire for the Bengals. Throw in some injuries on both sides of the balls for the Bengals, and the Bills should extend their start to 3-0
The Packers defence has improved dramatically and been a key component to why they are 2-0 with wins over both the Bears and Vikings so far. Flacco and the Broncos come to Lambeau field and its hard to see this veteran QB, with minimal weapons at his disposal (and ranked 22nd in the NFL thus far in yards per play) get much done against this solid Packers defence.
Aaron Rodgers has been a bit slow to adjust to new coach Matt LaFleur’s offense, which has been complicated coming up against two very solid defensive units. Whilst the Broncos represent a solid defensive unit, Aaron Rodgers is one of the best QBs not only in the league, but of all time, and should click into gear at home here. The Packers are simply better on both sides of the ball, have the better QB and are at home. We have a line closer to 9 for this game, and the Packers should come away with another win at home.
Patriots vs Jets
Jets Team Total UNDER 11
6 Units @$1.88 (Ladbrokes)
The Patriots should extend their winning start to the season and make it a 3-0 start with a win tomorrow against the Jets. Now this should not come as a shock to anyone, which is why the Pats are a $1.03 favourite and -21/22 at the line. Since 2000, there have been 6 favourites of 20 or more in the NFL, (the Patriots have been that favourite 5 times) and in this time the favourites are 0-6 ATS.
The Patriots should dominate from start to finish, having won the last three games at Gillette stadium against the Jets by a combined 105-12, with the Jets mustering just 4 field goals across the three games. That being said, I cannot advocate for betting the line, the number is simply too big, although there is a good chance the Patriots cover.
Instead we will be recommending the Jets Team Total UNDER 11. This New England defence is good, really good. Going back to last years superbowl they’ve allowed just 6 points in the last 3 games, which is unprecedented in the modern NFL. Only 2 teams in the history have the NFL have ever gone 4 straight games allowing 3 or fewer points. Even if they can’t manage this, they are still the 1st team since 2000 to go 3 straight games without allowing over 3 points, which considering the league wide rise in scoring since then is an unbelievable achievement, even more so when you consider the fact they’ve faced both the Rams in the Superbowl and the Steelers in this stretch.
Luke Falk makes his 1st NFL start after coming in for Trevor Siemian last week, as the Jets were anaemic against the Browns managing just 3 points at home. Yes Falk will have a week to prepare, but there is a reason he was on the practice squad barely a week ago. This Patriots defence and in particular secondary is straight up unbelievable. Le’Veon Bell can only do so much, especially with the Patriots likely to pack the box to make Falk throw it.
The Patriots should run away with this early and expect a slow second have with lots of run from the Patriots. The Jets score maybe one or two field goals, but should be held to single digits here.
Los Angeles Rams vs Cleveland Browns
Browns TEAM TOTAL UNDER 23.0 Points
6 Units @$1.75 (Sportsbet)
It’s hard to see how the Browns putting more points this week than last week, against a much better defensive unit. The Browns lost Njoku to a broken wrist, which is a big loss and whilst we saw OBJ put up massive numbers on MNF (as predicted), Mayfield’s decision making was questionable on multiple key moments, although often not punished against the Jets, similar mistakes will be punished here. The Browns O-line has been exceedingly sub-par and Mayfield has been sacked 8 times already, tied for 4th in the NFL and they come up against an intimidating Rams side with Aaron Donald. There are a lot of injuries as well for the Browns O-line and Baker holds the ball longer than most QBs which will be an issue against this Rams side.
This should be a tight affair and look for the Rams to hold the Browns to under 20 here.
Dolphins vs Cowboys
Total Points OVER 46.5
5 Units @$1.90
We detailed last week the changes we liked in the Cowboys offence this year and they came out and dropped 31 on the Redskins in a 31 point victory. Coming up against a Dolphins side which has given up 102 points!!! In two weeks (both games at home), I like the Cowboys to put up another big score. This offence is fantastic and I expect to see improvement once again. The Dolphins have already given up 12 TDs and we should see them give up a lot more here tomorrow.
As outlined above, favourites >20 in the NFL are rarely a profitable proposition and with the number creeping up to 23, we will favour the over.
Ryan Fitzpatrick was dropped for Josh Rosen, who I think is a good QB. Whilst this Dolphins side is terrible, they managed 10 points against the Ravens and I think they can get into double digits here and could very well cover this line with a backdoor cover.
EARLY PLAY FOR MONDAY (as per Thursday’s email)
This play was suggested on Thursday and it has since come in significantly as we expected!
Detroit Lions VS Philly Eagles
Lions +6.5 vs Eagles
6 Units @2 (TAB/Ladbrokes)
Lions WIN
2 Units @$3.40 (Ladbrokes)
The Eagles are the most beat up team in the league right now, to such an extend they’ve had to cancel the week’s biggest training session (Wednesday USA time) for a walkthrough. They came into their game against the Falcons with significant injuries to their pass defence and left with a host of injuries to pass catchers, to add to a significant list of defensive injuries leaving them battered on both sides of the ball. DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffrey and Dallas Goedert all left Atlanta with injuries. Reports are stating that the Eagles are now being forced to decided on whether Jackson needs surgery, but regardless will miss at least this week, Jeffrey is expected to miss two weeks as well and whilst there have been no definitive reports I could find regarding Goedert, given he misses training this week and they’ve promoted Ellis from the practice squad, one could assume he will also miss. They have 13 players on the official injury report, and that is compounded by the fact they have a short week and play the Packers next week on Thursday Night Football.
Now to the other side of the ball, the Lions looked sharp in their win against the Chargers last week. Matthew Stafford has been on fire to start the season, with 65.3% completion rate for 630 yards at 8.4 yards/attempt. Their O-line has been strong, with Stafford not getting sacked at all against a strong pass rush from the Chargers. Defensively they played well as well, holding the Chargers to just 10 points.
This line won’t be at 6.5 by the time the game comes around, so lock it in now. The Lions should cover and could very well win straight up here against a beat up Eagles. This will definitely hit 6 and depending on the final injury report we will probably see a final line of ~4.5-5.
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