NFL TIPS 27/10

MULTI

Seattle Seahawks WIN (1.25)

Indianapolis Colts WIN (1.41)

6 Units @$1.81 (Use Beteasy BetBoost)

Level 1 = $100

The Falcons are 1-6 and are coming off a drubbing at the hands of the Rams last week. Defensively they are just terrible, they’ve allowed 28,20,27,24,53,34 and 37 points this season. Their secondary is a mess, constantly giving up big plays. And to make things worse, Matt Ryan is out injured so they will start Matt Schaub under centre, his first start in the league since 2015 and the first team in 10 years he has started for the Falcons. Dan Quinn must have the worlds best agent considering he is still employed as the head coach of the Falcons. The Seahawks are a very good side and will bounce back from an ugly loss to the Ravens. Look for Russell Wilson and co to put up huge numbers against this porous defence.

Indy are a very impressive 4-2 considering both the schedule they’ve had and the fact their starting QB retired just days prior to the season opener. Frank Reich is one of the best coaches in the league and he has the Colts excelling on both sides of the ball. Brissett has been brilliant this year and that 326 yard/4 TD performance against the Texans signalled his arrival. He already has 14 TD passes, which is more than the 13 he managed in 15 games during the 2017 season. The Broncos continue to have issues scoring this season, with Flacco just too old and immobile to run this Denver offence. After managing just 6 points against a terrible Chiefs defence, its hard to see them being exploding against a relatively stringent Colts unit. A tough spot on the road for the Broncos should see the Colts extend their strong start to the season

 

Seattle Seahawks -7.5 

5 Units @$1.86 (Sportsbet)

 

Cleveland Browns Team Total UNDER 16.0 (Away team under)

6 Units @$1.85 (Sportsbet) 

 

How good is this Patriots defence really? Well, they continue to grow each week and set records in just about every category. Some of these records include:

– 223.1 yards per game (the best since the 1991 Eagles)

– 4.0 yards per play (best since ’08 Steelers)

– 3.1 takeaways per game (best ever)

– A measly 14.3 3rd down % completion percentage (best ever)

– An opposition QB passing rating of 35.6 (best since 1973 Steelers)

– 6.9 points per game (the best since the 1934 Lions!) [*this does not include points scored by oppositions defences]

The Patriots have allowed scores of 3,0,14,10,7,14 and 0 this season.

The Browns have only eclipsed this mark in 3/6 games this season and that was against the Jets, Ravens and Seahawks, three teams with far weaker defences that the Patriots. Against better defences, that are still not in the same realm as the Patriots they have managed 13 at home to the Titans, 13 at home to the Rams and 3 away to the 49ers.

Now to travel to New England to face one of the best defences of all time, and Bill Belichick and his staff are the best at scheming against inexperienced QBs and coaches. Its hard to see Kitchens and Mayfield producing much against this NE defence.

 

Detroit Lions -6.5 

6 Units @$1.96 (Pointsbet)

The Lions 2-3-1 record is deceiving, and they could very easily be 4-1-1. With tight losses to the Eagles, Chiefs and Packers, where late leads where blown in the latter two, with both losses combined by just 5 points. Matthew Stafford has been excellent this season and should have another big game against the 29th ranked Giants pass defence which is allowing 8.3 yards per play.

The Giants, even with Barkley back, are not a good side. The introduction of Daniel at QB and the ensuing “Danny Dimes” mania was an overreaction to a win against Tampa thanks to a missed chip FG and then a win over the hapless Redskins. Other than those two games the Giants have barely been competitive losing by more than a TD in 4/5 losses with an average loss of 15 points.The Lions are better on both sides of the ball and should bounce back from last week at home to the Giants.

 

Texans vs Raiders – Both Teams To Score 20+ Points (YES) 

7 Units @$1.92 (Pointsbet)

This market is far too high from Pointsbet! Sportsbet have the Yes @$1.61 and No @$2.20 which also presents an arbitrage opportunity as well. This market has cashed in the last 3 games for each side and 5/7 overall for the Texans.

With two good offensive units going up against fragile defensive units with issues particularly in their secondary’s which will allow big plays we should see a lot of points on both sides here. Our total is set at 53, just above the bookmakers 51.5. At $1.92 huge value on this BTTS 20+ play!

 

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