NFL TIPS 29/10
Miami Dolphins +14.5
6 Units @$1.86 (Bet365, under More Markets / Alternative Line]
Level 2 = $181
ANALYSIS:
The 0-6 Dolphins travel to Pittsburgh to take on the 2-4 Steelers with QB Mason Rudolph at the helm, making just his 4th start in the NFL. It’s hard to see how this line is so big, other than the fact that the bookies think that the public are going to fade the Dolphins all season regardless of the number. We saw the Dolphins at +14 to the Patriots, which made sense, but here it doesn’t as Rudolph simply should never by laying 14 points against another NFL side at this point in his career. Rudolph missed the win against the Chargers after being concussed against the Ravens but since Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers offence has look limited with Rudolph at the helm.
The Dolphins have been historically inept to start the year, however there have been signs of life since swapping to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB over Josh Rosen, which has coincided with some aggressive +EV playcalling under Brian Flores and Chad O’Shea. Against Buffalo, one of the leagues premier defences, they had 9 plays of 14+ yards, easily the most all season, with the play-action game coming into force.
The Dolphins led the Bills 13-9 at HT last week and eventually lost by 10, however were leading going into the 4th quarter and with 1:45 to go trailed by just 3 points when the Bills recovered the onside kick and returned it for a TD to push the margin to 10.
The line is to high.