NFL TIPS 23/12
MULTI
Ravens/Ravens (halftime/fulltime Double)
Falcons WIN
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When these two sides met in week 4, the Browns won 40-25 (in a game we correctly analysed and had bet on the Browns). However, we won’t be seeing a repeat of that performance here.
The Ravens have won 10 straight since that loss to the Browns, with an average margin of victory of 18.0 points. The Ravens own the league’s best offence, and have rushed for a hair under 800 yards in the past 4 games and they come up against the 3rd worst rush defence in the league which has given up 155 yards per game.
Defensively the Ravens have continued to improve throughout the season as we’ve outlined a number of times already. Don’t expect too much from this Browns offence this time around.
This is a huge game for the Ravens who can cement the #1 seed and as a result will be able to rest starters in week 17. Against the 20th rank defence, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens should hang a big number here in an easy victory.
Since week 9, the Jaguars are at a -113 point differential, easily the worst in the league. Don’t read too much into that come from behind victory last week against the Raiders, in a game where they were dominated in just about every important statistic and benefited from some huge decisions (which the league office would admit were made in error). This is the same side that lost 5 straight by 17+ points.
The Falcons have won back to back games against the Panthers and impressively against the 49ers last week. Expect a big performance from the Falcons in their final home game of the season as the players fight for Dan Quinn’s job.
The Jaguars struggle defensively in many ways but in particular, defending opposing tight ends. They are the second worst team in the league defending tight ends, so expect a big game from Austin Hooper. Last week they allowed 122 yards off 8 passes to Oakland’s TE Darren Waller.
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 vs Bears
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Despite wrapping up the AFC West, this is a big game for the Chiefs, who could go as high as the #1 seed at the conclusion of the weekend.
The Chiefs continue to look more impressive each week, with 4 straight wins, a pair of 7 point wins against the Chargers and Patriots and then blowouts against the Raiders (31) and Broncos (20 in the snow). Almost as impressive is the fact that the Chiefs have only given up 45 points across this stretch.
This Bears side say their playoffs hopes ended last week with a loss to their rivals in the Packers, in a game that summarised their season perfectly. Poor playcalling and QB play along with missed opportunities. Mitch Trubisky now has 5 straight games with an interception which coming into the weekend was the longest streak in the league.
Don’t discount the Chiefs from the Superbowl picture just yet as they are hitting their stride at the perfect time. Look for a big win here for the Chiefs against the hapless Bears.
Dallas -1.5
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Dallas will be disappointed with their record this season, but a win here will see them play post-season football. One area were the Cowboys have excelled this season is on the offensive side of the ball, ranking #1 in yards per play, and are ranked #2 by DVOA. They come in off the back of a 44-21 win over the Rams that was a bigger blowout than even the final score suggests (it was 37-7 with 3:20 to go).
The Eagles have limped over the line in their last 2 against two of the worst teams in the league in the forms of the Giants and Redskins, both of whom pushed the Eagles all the way. Once again the Eagles will be missing their star RT Lane Johnson and their WR corps are still depleted. Its hard to see how they will match up against the firepower that the Cowboys possess. Carson Wentz continues to be under siege at QB and its whilst he has done a fine job of getting them over the line the past few weeks it won’t be enough here.