We head to week 17 with 9 straight weeks of profit and are looking to close out the (regular) season with 10 winning weeks in a row before we head to the playoffs!
For some of you, this may be your first season betting the NFL, and if so please be aware of both the difficulties of week 17 as well as the fact there are many games where lots of starters will be rested, both for playoff teams and other teams with important veterans who may get rested.
The Vikings, Ravens and Bills are all guaranteed their current seeds in the playoff and the Texans will likely be secured their seeding prior to kick off. This is why their lines may seem “off” but the first two teams mentioned prior have already announced that many starters will be rested. For these sides, their main focus is injury prevention given the important game(s) that are to follow, making their matches borderline impossible to predict
#1 MULTI OF
Patriots 4+
Green Bay Packers 4+
12 Units @$1.62 (TAB)
Level 1 = $100
The Packers and the Patriots have their destiny in their own hands. A win for both of these sides means they are guaranteed a first round bye, and the Packers will even end up with the #1 seed if the Seahawks were to also win.
Look for the Packers to continue on with their impressive run of form against this hapless Lions side. They were able to feast on a (much better) Vikings O-line and Cousins struggled almightily. Blough and the Lions have really struggled since the opening quarter of that thanksgiving game. He had 2 passing TDs in that first quarter and then only another two since then! The Packers are simply much better on both sides of the ball and their defence should get the job done as will Aaron Rodgers on the flip side.
The “demise” of the Patriots and Tom Brady has once again been prematurely announced who are 12-3 heading into tonight’s game.
Tom Brady vs the Dolphins in NE is one of the most dominant records in NFL history. He is 15-0 in matches he has played the full game (15-1 if you include a meaningless week 17 game in which he was benched to rest for the playoffs after a few reps)
This young dolphins secondary gave up 396 yards against Andy Dalton and the Bengals last week so despite NEs intermittent struggles offensively this season they looked to have turned a cover and will have success here against the Dolphins.
With two of the leagues best teams who need to win to secure first round byes against two of the worst teams in the league we should see two easy victories here.
#2 Tampa Bay / Falcons – OVER 48.5
7 Units@
Who in ready to ride the Jameis-coaster one last time this season! He has thrown 31 TD passes and a ridiculous 28 interceptions whilst leading the league in passing yards. Jameis continues to help both teams score large totals and 11 of 13 of the Bucs games have gone over without much of an adjustment from the bookies. A big game looks set to be coming from Jameis and the Bucs here.
The Falcons have improved a lot in the last month but it was too little too late for a playoff push. They have won 3 on the trot and scored 24+ in each.
We should see an entertaining shootout here. Jameis needs just 2INTs to be the inaugural member of the 30/30 club – will he get there?!
#3 Andy Dalton (Bengals) OVER 229.5 Passing Yards vs Browns
6 Units @$1.83 (Bet365)
Dalton has gone over this mark in 10/12 games this season and the only times he didn’t was against the stringent Patriots and Steelers defence.
With the Bengals likely to take a QB with the #1 pick, his recent benching made it clear that Daltons future isn’t in Cincinnati. Auditioning for a starting role next season we should see another competitive performance from Dalton here. He hasn’t been terrible this season given the terrible O-line and weak receiving corps available, yet despite this has still produced at a reasonable level.
Boyd had a monster game last week as did Dalton who throw for 4 TDS and 0 INTs. He covered this number a few weeks ago on the road against this Browns side and should be the same here at home in his (likely) final game as a Bengal.
#4 Seahawks / 49ers OVER 47
7 Units @
After years of defensive domination at home, the Seahawks have struggled almightily at home this season, allowing 29 PPG, placing them 27th in the league whilst the 49ers have been excellent scoring on the road.
The 49ers defence has regressed after a host of injuries, allowing 106 points in their last 3. We’ve discussed this on multiple occasions this season, but SF’s defence has struggled against mobile QBs (even when they were performing at their peak). In their 4 games against mobile QBs they’ve allowed an average of 24.5 points and given up 310.5 yards per game
This should be a cracking game to end the regular season and we should see both teams score efficiently here.