STATE OF ORIGIN TIPS – GAME 1
LEVEL BET (Carrying on since last round)
Queensland to win @$2.05 (Pointsbet – If they score first try, instant payout)
8 units
Level 3: $225.68 (after cashing out $100 at completion of level 2 to ensure profit)
Return: $462.64
High stakes $10K challenge (no cash outs)
Level 3 = $325.68
Return: $667.64
ANALYSIS:
Home field advantage and the Home crowd factor cannot be ignored in Origin!
QLD have won 65% of their games at home and only 33% of games in NSW. QLD have lost the penalty count only once in the past eight games at Suncorp and have won five of the past six games at Suncorp. With this game being in Queensland and both the bookies and the public believing NSW are the better side, we expect them to really fire up knowing they need to win game 1 to have any chance in the series.
This game can be broken down in several ways but in origin metres are just so hard to come by as the defence is always at its strongest. So we need to determine who wins the kicking game. We believe the game will be won and lost tonight in this department.
For the Blues fifth-tackle kicking options, it’s mostly just Nathan Cleary that’ll kick with perhaps Damien Cook kicking from dummy half here and there and Cody Walker is armed with some good short kicks. Cleary will be forced to carry the brunt of the punting pressure.
Queensland on the other hand aren’t short of kickers at all with big guns Cameron Munster and captain Daly Cherry-Evans leading the way with the boot, but also have Ben Hunt, Michael Morgan and Kalyn Ponga who can can chip in too as they’re the main kickers at their clubs.
When it comes to goal kicking, it doesn’t matter how many kickers you have it just comes down to who you have as your number 1. For the Blues it’s Cleary and for the Maroons I believe it’ll be Ponga but unfortunately for the Ponga, Cleary is rated as one of the best kickers in the game and it’ll be crucial tonight.
When it comes to kicking to touch on a penalty outside of scoring range, there’s a huge advantage with Queensland. Cherry-Evans will be taking these kicks and he’ll kick 30-40 metres down field into touch and that’s a huge gain of field position while Cleary can’t kick it as far.
Field kicking: 1 point to the Maroons
Conversion kicking: 1 point to the Blues
Touch kicking: 1 point to the Maroons
Another important factor is Luke Keary’s absence for the Blues after going down with another HIA in his last game he was ruled out of tonight’s game. If he’s playing there’s a clear advantage as to why the Blues are the side to pick but without him it becomes a very even match up across the field and getting Queensland as underdogs while playing at home in Suncorp is too good to go past!
Sportsbet Same Game Multi @$2
– First try 8 minutes or later (Time of markets)
– Race to 30 points = Neither (Win markets)
8 units
- In origin 2018 there wasn’t a single try scored in the opening 10 minutes of play and the total game scores finished on 30, 32 and 34 and with the same big defensive mindset put into origin again in 2019 we see these numbers continuing again. Out of the three games in 2018 only once did a team score 20+ and that was the Blues at home in game one who scored just 22 points, besides that the average score was just less than 15 points per side.
Beteasy: Build a bet option
Gagai and/or Addo-Carr to score and either team to win by 1-12 @$2.05
4 units
- Dane Gagai has scored 9 tries in 10 origin appearances which is the best of any player playing tonight so look for him to score again tonight!
- Josh Addo-Carr has scored a try 9 times through 10 games in 2019 and will be the quickest guy on the floor tonight so he’s another one we have our eyes on!
VALUE TIPS
Man of the match Winner:
Daly Cherry-Evans $15 (Pointsbet)
1 unit
- Cherry-Evans is the captain playing in the halves and we have already spoken about how important kicking will be in this game. If the Maroons win this game, he is a big chance.
Kalyn Ponga $10 (Ladbrokes -Boosted)
0.5 units
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Goodluck to all on board! Lets make this week another big week of Profit!