NFL SUPERBOWL TIPS!
Here it is guys, the final game of the NFL Season! The highlighted success this season was definitely completing the $100 into $10,000 challenge! Lets end a what has been a huge NFL season on a high!
Mahomes OVER 2.5 touchdown passes
8 Units @$2.05 (Ladbrokes)
Mahomes, last years MVP has blossomed again this season and with the help of a capable defensive unit has led his side to the first of what one must presume will be many Superbowls. This SF defensive unit only allowed 11 rushing TDs in the regular season despite numerous injuries throughout the year. In this game where both sides are full strength, look for them to stuff the run in the red zone, with KC relying on their superstar for touchdowns.
With a match total line of 53.5, which we think is fairly accurately set, this should be a high scoring affair. Look for Mahomes to take control for KC offensively and throw multiple TD passes.
Wire to Wire: Any Other Result
7 Units @$1.67 (Pointsbet, 1.65 TAB)
Its hard to predict a winner in what should be a tightly contested game between these two sides. With lots of points anticipated and a match that should be tight throughout, look for multiple lead changes.
Kicker MarketsDistance of Longest Successful Field Goal
UNDER 46.5 Yards
5 Units @$1.87 (Ladbrokes)
Over the past 20 Superbowls, they have only been 7 FGs made from a distance of 47 yards or more. Looking more recently at the Chiefs and 49ers this season, this prop would have hit in 64% of their games, even accounting for opposition field goal attempts – with less aggressive offensive coaches. We have seen both Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan be extremely aggressive from this midfield range on 4th downs all season and with great success its hard to see that changing in the Superbowl.
Will there be a successful 2-point conversion: YES
3 Units @$3.00 (Pointsbet)
In the past 4 Superbowls, there have been 5 2-point attempts of which 3 have been successful.Again with these two aggressive and analytically-minded coaches, don’t be surprised to see one or even two, 2-point conversions. There are a number of scenarios that might bring about this opportunity, however the most likely would be if one team was to take a 14 point lead and the other respond with a TD, the analytics say going for 2 in this scenario is the right play, and Reid/Shanahan would both be very likely to take the aggressive (and correct) playcall here.
Anytime Touchdown Scorers:
Kittle $2.40 (Pointsbet, 2.37 Sportsbet)
Kelce $2.10 (Sportsbet)
Both 4 Units each
Kittle and Kelce are the two best TEs in the NFL since the retirement of Gronk and both play a huge role in their respective offences. Look for both to be involved in the redzone. This is the first time in NFL history two tight ends have each had 1000 yards coming into the superbowl. At plus odds, we need just one of the two to score a TD to turn a profit with a very good shot at both finding their names on the scoresheets tomorrow.
Raheem Mostert Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts 5 Units @1.77 (beteasy)
Raheem Mostert First Rushing Attempt UNDER 4.5 yards 3 Units @$1.88 (beteasy)
Here is the number of carriers Mostert has had this season: 9, 15, 12,7,4,9,1,6,6,6,19,10,14,11,10,12,29 It goes without saying that that 29-carry game last week against Packers is a significant outlier – other than that game he has only once carried the ball more than 15 times – with 19 carries against Baltimore. This is a severe over-reaction to the outing against Green Bay, and with Coleman and Breida available the carries should be shared. It is important to remember that Breida started against the Vikings and Coleman started against the Packers (prior to dislocating his shoulder, which saw himout of the game but is fit to play tomorrow). With the ball to be run primarily amongst these three, but also with the Samuel available for a few carries we are anticipating Mostert to fall well short of this 16.5 prop. The Chiefs nose tackle Chris Jones was absolutely immense against the Titans, helding hold Henry to just 69 yards, and the 310 pounder is KC’s best defensive player and should be able to have success against the inside of the 49ers line. KC should commit sufficient resources to stop the outside-zone, which will open up other holes defensively, but these will be force Garroppolo to shoulder the responsible with the passing game.