NFL TIPS 9/12 – LEVEL 9 BET
What a run it has been for NFL God! We completed the high stakes $100 into $10,000 challenge and we not continue the regular 10k challenge! Our current tally stands at $100 into $5,419.91!
Level 9 MULTI
Minnesota -3.5 $1.33 (alternate handicap or pick your own line markets)
Green Bay -3.5 $1.30
= $1.72 (Tab)
10 units
REGULAR 10K CHALLENGE INSTRUCTIONS
Level 9 Amount = $3,419.91 (This is after we withdraw another $1000 at completion of level 8. This means we have now withdraw $2000 guaranteed profit regardless and we could continue the challenge if this was to fail)
Return = $5,882.25 (Total bankroll will = $7,882.25 from initial $100 outlay)
^^HIGH STAKES 10K CHALLENGE (no cash outs)
|Level 1 = $100
We completed the high stakes challenge on Monday and turned $100 into $10,479.55!???
ANALYSIS:
The Vikings are excellent at beating bad football teams by large margins. With the exception of that Broncos game where the Vikings forgot to play the first half and still won by 4, margins of victory include 10 (vs Washington), 12 (@ Detroit), 18 (vs Eagles), 18 (@Giants), 20 (vs Oakland) and 16 (vs Falcons). Their only other home game this year was against the Seahawks where they won by 6. Undefeated at home on the season and that’s not going to change against a very poor Lions side.
In their previous meeting this season the Vikings won 42-30 on the road with Stafford at the helm for the Lions who had a monster 364yard / 4 TD game but even that wasn’t enough to stop the Vikings from losing by double digits.
Now the Lions are down to third string QB David Blough, who was better than anticipated in his debut although still showed in the key moments that he is an undrafted rookie. Furthermore the Vikings will have had the chance to analyse the film from that game and scheme appropriately. Mike Zimmer is one of the best defensive minds in the league, and after sacking Stafford 10 times last year, don’t be surprised to see a large number of sacks here.
The offence was firing yet again against the Seahawks with Kirk Cousins and co putting up 30 points. However they were let down by some key turnovers and their worst defensive performance of the season against a very good Seahawks side. Don’t buy the narrative that that loss was on Cousins because he’s continued his excellent season.
Look for the Vikings to take an early lead and utilise their run heavy offence to control the game and win by double digits
The Green Bay Packers got it done for us easily for our level bet last week against the NY Giants.
The Packers are 16-3-1 in their last 20 at home under Rodgers whose home/away splits continue to be an issue for the Packers coaching staff. However they are dominant at home with Rodgers and are great at putting away bad teams with ease (such as the Redskins in this spot)
One thing the Packers have done extremely well this season is converting their scoring drives into Touchdowns. Of their last 22 scoring drives, 19 have been touchdowns and against this Redskins defence they should have no issues continuing their form in this area.
Since 2000, double digit underdogs coming off a win are 28-47-3 ATS which is often due to the market overreaction to the result. The Redskins have won two on the trot including last week as a 10.5 underdog against the Panthers. Our spread on this game is 15, two points higher than the bookies line but importantly across that key number 14. Don’t be disillusioned by this little hot streak against poor opponents, this Washington side is not a good team, and Dwayne Haskins at this point in his career is still developing into an NFL starter and will struggle under pressure.
With the Bears surging late, the Packers can’t take their foot off the pedal and should have no issues at home against the lowest scoring team in the league.
49ers +2.5 vs New Orleans Saints
6 Units @$1.92 (BetEasy)
The 49ers and Saints both come in 10-2 and this is shaping up to be a brilliant affair.
As we have discussed on multiple occasions this year, the 49ers pass defence weakness is a mobile QB. If we simplistically classify this as QBs ranking in the top 5 in rushing (Murray x2, Wilson, Jackson) – in the 4 meetings against these QBs the 49ers have given up 24.5 ppg. That’s more than double what they’ve given up in their other 8 games at 10.6 ppg!
As we saw in that (shock) blowout loss to the Falcons a few weeks ago the Saints struggled to contain the aggressive pass rush and 40 year old Brees isn’t breaking those blitzes for long rushes. On a similar note we saw them struggle against an aggressive cowboys front in that 12-10 win where Brees was sacked 5 times.
Look for the 49ers to be led by their defence here and they’re a very good shot to win this one outright
Dolphins / Jets OVER 45.5
6 Units @$1.91 (Beteasy)
Ryan Fitzpatrick has been exceptional this season after taking over Josh Rosen. In fact he has the 8th highest QBR. The Dolphins have put up 20+ in 4/5 including 37 last week against the Eagles. Whilst the Dolphins aren’t playing for anything other than pride at this point, they have shown some aggressive and creative playcalling – see last weeks trick play.
Defensively they have been terrible, ranking last in opponent yards per play. The Jets were off target last week against the Bengals but against a terrible Dolphins defence they should bounce back here, having put up 34 points in each of the three games prior to last weeks loss.
There should lots of points on offer with both QBs looking to have big days here.
Patriots vs Chiefs UNDER 49.5
6 Units @1.87 (beteasy/TAB)
The Patriots remain the best defensive unit in the league despite their stuttering offence. As we highlighted earlier in the season, Mahomes performs significantly worse against man coverage than against zone. They usually play man coverage more than any other team in the league as it is, and as we saw in the AFC championship game last year (to great success), an even higher percentage of snaps was played in man coverage.
With Brady and the offence struggling this season, look for Brady to act as more of a game manager here. With the Chiefs possessing the 3rd worse run defence in the league we should see the Patriots slow this one down and lean heavily on the run here.
Another thing to note is that the Patriots currently do have have a kicker on their roster and are expected to be re-signing Nick Folk to kick in this one. Don’t be surprised to see some missed kicks coming out here.
Jaguars +3.5
5 Units @$1.90 (TAB)
The Jags have announced that Nick Foles has been benched in favour of the Minshew who they will turn to in the hope of him bringing back the spark that saw him go 4-4 as a starter.
It’s hard to see how anyone could even consider laying more than a FG on this Chargers side who have lost 3 on the trot including last week against Drew Lock and the Broncos in his NFL debut. The Chargers have been poor on the road this year, and continue to play lots of close games, with 6/12 decided either 3 or less points at the end of regulation.
The Chargers keep finding creative ways to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory, including last weeks defensive pass interfence call with seconds left on the clock to set up the Broncos for the game winning field goal.
Rivers has 8 interceptions and just 5 TDs in the last 3 games as the Chargers have been rumoured to have strongly considered dropping Rivers, and its honestly not hard to see why.
This should be a close one and likely decided by a FG or less so take the points in this one.
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