NFL TIPS 2/12
What a massive run of profit it has been for NFL God! We move on to level 8 of the 10k challenge and could possibly complete the high stakes challenge if tomorrow’s level 8 bet wins! 5 Straight profitable weeks! Lets continue!
LEVEL 8 MULTI
Green Bay Packers WIN
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (pick your own line)
= $1.76 (TAB)
12 Units
Level 8 Amount = $2,511.31 (after withdrawing $100 at completion of level 2, $300 at completion of level 4 and $600 at completion of level 6 to ensure $1000 profit regardless of result)
Return = $4,419.91 (+ $1000 That has already been withdrawn from the initial $100 outlay)
^^^HIGH STAKES 10K CHALLENGE (no cash outs)
Level 8 = $5,954.29
Return = $10,479.55
ANALYSIS:
The Packers come in off the back of their worst performance and loss of the season against the 49ers and that terrific pass rush, which combined with an early injured to Bryan Bulaga meant Aaron Rodgers was under siege all day. As a result he managed just 104 pass yards, but this will be the perfect tonic to bounce back.
The Giants have lost 7 straight by an average margin of defeat of 11.5. The Giants rank 31st in yards per attempt allowed, and with Rodger’s skill players healthy we should see a better game offensively here. The Giants have allowed 13 plays of 40+ yards this season, the most in the league, whilst Rodgers ranks 4th with 10 such plays of his own. The Packers are the better side across the park and should bounce back strongly here.
The Raiders got destroyed last week against the Jets, with Sam Darnold and co putting up 34 points. The Chiefs offence, coming in well rested and with Tyreek Hill in the lineup one of the leagues premier offences should have no issues scoring 30+ against this terrible Raiders defence. Andy Reid off a bye is always a good betting proposition, particularly against this a defence this bad, and with plenty of time to scheme, look for some creative plays by the Chiefs here.
The Raiders remain overrated, after significantly overachieving this season. Now Carr coming off a 3 point performance against the Jets will be without his slot receiver Hunter Renfrow which is a big loss for the Raiders. The KC defence has been sneakily good, ranking 14th in DVOA and 6th in pass defence (in comparison to the Raiders ranked 31)
The Chiefs are better on both sides of the ball and should have no troubles getting the win at home.
New York Jets -3.0
6 Units $1.91 (Pointsbet/Beteasy)
ANALYSIS:
The New York Jets scored 34 points for the 3rd consecutive week as they annihilated the Raiders 34-3, giving us one of our easiest winners for the season. Sam Darnold has been excellent. It was against the Giants, Redskins and Raiders however all of these teams rank higher defensively than the Bengals. Sam Darnold should be able to torch this Bengals secondary and score more than enough points here. Bell should be able to run effectively against this Bengals defensive unit.
Defensively, their run defence has continued to be outstanding as we highlighted last week, and they should be able to contain Joe Mixon who despite having a relatively quite year is still a quality RB. Dalton returns after being benched now that the winless Bengals have all but secured the worst record in the league and will be looking to try and avoid a 0-16 season.
Look for the Jets to keep rolling with another win here to make it 4 straight.
Baltimore Ravens vs SF 49ers
Baltimore Ravens To Score 25+
6 Units @$1.96 (Pointsbet)
ANALYSIS:
As we have highlighted on a number of occasions this season already, the chief weakness to this SF 49ers defence is mobile QBs. Murray and the Cardinals dropped 26 and 25 points in their two matches against SF whilst Wilson and the Seahawks managed 27. Now the face the seemingly unstoppable Ravens offence, which hasn’t punted in THREE GAMES with Lamar at QB (*there have been punts in the final minutes of the Bengals and Rams games but with backup QB in and the Ravens milking the clock up 30+, don’t read too much into that). The Ravens have scored on 12 straight possessions with Lamar at QB.
The three games by Murray and Wilson saw them pick up an average of 8.1 yards on 19 rushes against this SF defence, so Lamar should be able to replicate and likely exceed their success in this department.
The Ravens have scored 30+ in 5 straights and 40+ in 3 straight and should be able to mount another big score here. They dismantled a Rams defence which ranked 4 in DVOA heading into last week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers TEAM TOTAL OVER 24.0
6 Units @$1.82 (Sportsbet)
ANALYSIS:
The Jags have been blown out in 3 straight games losing by 20+ in each and giving up 42/33/26 points respectively. In this stretch they have given up at least 200 rushing yards in each game, being just the 4th team in the last 10 years to do so.
Winston is a rollercoaster at QB for the Bucs. But he has thrown 300+ yards in 6 straight, is second in the NFL for both pass yards and TDs but is also comfortably in the lead for interceptions. Despite being just a 4 win team, they’ve been competitive all season despite a very difficult schedule and have won 2/3 coming in. In their last 9 games, the Bucs would be 6-2-1 against this line and against this hapless Jags defence they should go over again here.
New England -3 $1.85 (Labrokes)
6 Units @$1.85
The Patriots are a much better side than they are currently getting credit for in terms of their offense. With horrible weather against the Eagles/Cowboys, Brady did enough to get his team over the line and their offence wasn’t terrible against the Ravens with those 20 points the most they’ve given up in the last 6 games.
Their defence has been excellent as season as we have touched on throughout the season. They held one of the leagues best WRs in Amari Cooper catch less last week, and with the Texans rushing attack very mediocre, the Patriots will have schemed to limit Hopkins and Fuller.
Without JJ Watt this Texans defence continues to struggle, and they’ve allowed 505 rushing yards in the 3 games without him, and have struggled to get as much pressure on opposition QBs as they could muster with him in the line up.
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