NFL TIPS 17/11
MULTI
Minnesota Vikings WIN
Oakland Raiders WIN
Dallas Cowboys WIN
8 units @$1.93 (Use Beteasy Bet Boost)
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Darren Waller (Oakland Raiders)
Anytime TD Scorer:
1 Units @$2.20 (Sportsbet/Pointsbet)
Darren Waller to have 2+ receiving touchdowns / Oakland Raiders to win
0.5 Units @$13.00 (SportsbetPlayer performance doubles)
First up we have the Vikings at home to the Broncos and the Raiders at home to the Bengals. The lines are set at -10.5 and -11.5 respectively with the bookies whilst our model has them at -13.5 and -14.0.
The Vikings are 7-3 and RB Dalvin Cook has revolutionized this team as we highlighted a few rounds ago. He has 8 100+ yard games this season and because of his constant running threat has allowed for a devastating playbook consisting of play-action and screens. This is reflected in QB Kirk Cousin’s stats from weeks 1-4 and weeks 5 to now where his QBR went from 28 to 73.7from 4th worse to 4th best in the league! The Vikings are a tremendous home team, 4-0 SU at home this year, with an average of 29.7 ppg and an average winning margin of 16! The Broncos are a poor road side and with Allen set to make his 1st road start the Vikings should cruise here.
The Raiders at 5-4 find themselves poised for an unlikely playoff challenge, and with a win over the Bengals before the Jets coming to town next week, they could very easily be 7-4 going into their game against KC in a game which may well decide the AFC west. But the Raiders have to win tonight first. The Bengals are atrocious. There are no two ways about it, they are 0-9 and are coming off an embarrassing 36 point loss to the Ravens last week (where the Ravens didn’t even score in the final quarter). Unfortunately for the Bengals they possess the worst run defence in the league allowing 173 yards/game and come up against Josh Jacobs who has 811 yards rushing already this season and should be able to shred through this run defence of the Bengals. Darren Waller has had a superb year for the Raiders and has an excellent matchup against this Bengals defence who struggles to contain opposition Tight Ends. With the Raiders expected to have lots of red zone opportunities and maintaining a 24% target share, look for Waller to score a TD or two here in a big Raiders victory.
Finally we have the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Matthew Stafford-less Lions. This Cowboys offence is statistically one of the best in the league and this is reflected with them leading the league in yards per game. Prescott has been superb all season whilst Elliot has had a year with contrasting performances. He has 5 100 yard games but also struggled immensely on the other days, such as last week against the Vikings where his longest carry was 6 yards and had just 47 yards on 20 carries. Thankfully for Elliot and the Cowboys, this Lions run defence is even worse than last year where Elliot had 152 rushing yards and 88 receiving yards so we should see another big game from him here. The Lions have struggled to contain elite RBs all season. With Matthew Stafford out injured the Lions turn to Jeff Driskel at QB who simply won’t be able to go toe-to-toe with this Cowboys offence and Prescott. Look for the Cowboys to utilise their good starting field positions and record a big victory here.
Ravens vs Texans
Both Teams To Score 20+ Points (YES)
6.5 Units @$1.84 (Pointsbet)
Both Teams To Score 25+ Points (YES)
1 Unit @$3.60 (Pointsbet)
Both Teams To Score 30+ Points (YES)
0.5 Units @$6.25
Lamar Jackson. Deshaun Watson. What a game we have in store for us here! Two of the leagues best young QB’s go head to head.
The Ravens and Lamar Jackson are absolutely flying, having scored 116 points in their last 3 games against the Seahawks, Patriots and Bengals (30/37/49 respectively). The Texans defence will continue to miss JJ Watt. Whilst they only allowed 3 points to the Jags last time out, an important thing to note is that the % of blocks beaten within 2.5 seconds drops 16% without Watt to just 28%. Against an elite QB such as Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offence, that will be a significant issue.
The Texans are one of the best road teams in the league and their high powered offence should be able to match the Ravens here. Watson has 2,432 passing yards / 18 TDs on the season with a further 279/5 TDs running. Look for Watson to continue in his rich vein of form and his #1 WR Hopkins continues to have an excellent season with 8+ receptions in 4 straight games and 5+ in 12 straight
This should be a shootout between two excellent sides and should make for great viewing!
NY Jets +2.5
5 Units @$1.91 (Pointsbet)
With Dwayne Haskins named the Washington starter for the rest of the season. So we will likely see a run-heavy game from the Redskins as we have with Haskins on the field. However the issue here is they face the leagues best run defence who have allowed just 2.4 yards per carry on 109 attempts in their last 4 games, including an absolutely devastating performance against one of the best RBs in the league in the form of Barkley last week who had 13 carried for 1 net yard and a long of 3.
The Redskins last TD was 13 quarters ago when McLaurin secured a 33 yard pass from Keenum with 9:42 to go in the 3rd quarter against the Dolphins. They have since played the second half of that game, and then three games against the 49ers, Vikings and Bills without scoring a TD.
Look for Sam Darnold to step up for the second week in a row supported by Bell and his rushing offence. Haskins doesn’t quite look ready to lead an NFL side without good support from Peterson and the ground game which he is unlikely to get against this Jets defence. Look for the Jets to make it back to back wins here.
Arizona Cardinals +10.5
6 Units @$1.83 (TAB)
These two sides meet just two weeks removed from the 49ers 3 point win against the Cardinals, however this time Jimmy G will be without his favourite target in Kittle and Sanders remains questionable with that rib injury. Jimmy G struggled without the big Iowa TE last week against the Seahawks, completing just 52% of passes.
This Cardinals side had 357 yards and put up 25 points a fortnight ago and Murray should be able to once again handle this SF pass rush relatively well. Whilst the Cardinals sit at 3-5-1 they remain one of the most underrated sides in the league from a betting perspective which is why they are 7-3 ATS and have covered in 5/6. This offence led by Murray isn’t getting the respect it deserves here and they should be able to hang tight with this SF side coming off a short week.
Bears vs Rams
Mitch Trubisky UNDER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
5 Units @$1.58 (Sportsbet)
Mitch Trubisky has only had 8 passing TDs on the season, all coming in 3 games. He had 3 in a 173 yard performance against the Lions. Two against the Saints, both in the final 2:31 of the game after the Saints were up 36-10 and 3 against the hapless Redskins.
Trubisky has the second worse Total QBR in the league behind only the (now-benched) Marcus Mariota. Whilst the Rams have been terrible offensively all season, defensively they have been well above average after adding Jalen Ramsey, who continues to show why he is one of the best corners in the league. Look for him to shut down Robinson who at 618 yards who is the Bears leading receiver by 341 yards over Taylor Gabriel.
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