NFL TIPS 4/11
Level bet MULTI (suggested Friday)
San Francisco 49ers WIN ✅
Green Bay Packers WIN
8 Units @$1.94 (BetEasy use BetBoost)
Level 3 = $236.66 (After withdrawing $100 at completion of level 2)
HIGH STAKES CHALLENGE OPTION (NO CASH OUTS)
Level 3 = $336.66
Oakland Raiders vs Detroit Lions – Both Teams To Score 20+ Points:
7 Units @$1.95 (tab)
Going back to the Raiders for another BTTS 20+, which just like last week is set ridiculously high at $1.92 for a game whose total is 50.5 with the bookies and ours is slightly above that at 52.5. Last week was the 4th straight game this market has cashed for the Raiders and the 5th straight for the Lions who have cashed this market in 6 of their 7 games thus far this season.
We have the 5th vs 6th ranked teams in terms of passing efficiency taking the field here and we will likely see even better than usual numbers from both given the inadequacies of both defensive units. One particularly important stat is how poor both teams are at rushing the opposing QB (with both Carr and Stafford having terrific years as reflected by the aforementioned passing efficiency stat). The Raiders are 28th in generating sacks or QB hits whilst the Lions are one worse at 29th.
Expect to see another shootout between these two sides.
MULTI
Buffalo Bills WIN $1.20
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 (Pick own line)
7 Units @$1.63 (Tab)
The Bills take on the hapless Redskins who will start the rookie Dwayne Haskings in place of the injured Case Keenum. Coming up against of the best defensive units in the league, we haven’t seen anything from Haskings limited playing time this year to suggest he is ready for the NFL at this point.
This Redskins side is dreadful and have issues everywhere but in particular they continue to give up huge numbers to running backs. Look for Gore and Singletary to both have big games here as the Bills take an early lead and never look back.
We feel that the Jaguars should be favoured here against a Houston side which is being overvalued by the market. They’ve only won one game this year by more than 7 points and continue to lose key defensive players, with JJ watt the latest casualty. Look for Gardner Minshew to have a big game exploiting this Texans secondary. He has been the best QB this year in terms of QBR on passes of 15+ yards, which matches up perfectly against the current weakness of this Texans side. This should be a close game and the Jags (in London) should be favoured here!
Eagles -4
6 Units @$1.90 (Ladbrokes/Sportsbet)
Philly recorded a great bounce back win against the Bills last week whilst the Bears lost their 3rd straight against the Chargers. The Bears offensive issues we have touched on already a number of occasions this season but it has continued to regress even further, as they now rank 30th in yards per play and 28th in DVOA. Combine this with a defence which has regressed since last year and given up 77 points across their last 3 games.
Mitch Trubisky doesn’t have the weapons to exploit the Eagles secondary and its hard to see them putting up enough points here. Don’t overthink this one, this line suggests that on a neutral field the Eagles are only a point better than the Bears, which our model completely disagrees with.
Colts +1.5
6 Units $1.91 (Pointsbet/Beteasy)
The Colts continued their terrific season with a tight win against the Broncos, although weren’t helped by a missed FG and PAT in a low scoring affair. We successfully faded the Steelers against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. That game changed with the Dolphins called a ridiculous blitz on a 3rd and 20 with under a minute to go in the first half (and Dolphins up 14-0) to give up a long TD and change the momentum as the Dolphins tank continued. The Steelers 3 wins have come against sides which are a combined 3-20!
The Colts are better across the board than the Steelers, and have been excellent on the road this year highlighted by that big win against KC and Patrick Mahomes.
Mack and Brissett should both have big games here in another Colts win. They should not be the underdogs in this fixture.
Panthers -3.5
6 Units @$1.92 (Beteasy/ladbrokes)
It’s time to sell “high” on the Titans the buy low on the Panthers. The Titans, especially with Ryan Tannehill at QB are not a good side. They should’ve lost 6 of their last 7 but for a Gordon goal line fumble followed by that early whistle which straight up robbed the Bucs of a TD last week late in the 4th quarter.
The Panthers defence had entered last week ranked 3rd in the league to that point so whilst they gave up a huge spot to the 49ers, it is important not to over-reaction to a one off bad performance as the market has done. This Panthers side is better than the Titans by at least a few points on a neutral field so take the small line at home. Look for Allen to bounce back whilst MVP candidate McCaffrey should have another game of 100+ scrimmage yards.
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