NFL TIPS 6/9 (First tips of the season)
The NFL season 2019/20 gets underway tomorrow and what a game we have to kick it off, with the 199th instalment of the Bears-Packers rivalry. These two sides met in R1 last year as well with the Packers coming from 20-3 down to the end of the 3rd quarter to win 24-23! The Bears were able to win the last fixture in December by a score of 24-17
LEVEL BET ($100 into $10,000 challenge)
Chicago Bears WIN $1.60 (Ladbrokes)
4 units
Level 1 = $100
NFL – Same Game Multi
(1) Chicago Bears WIN
(2) Green Bay Packers +14.5 Alternative Handicap/pick own line
3 Units @$2.42 (Beteasy/Sportsbet)
ANALYSIS:
The multi bet is for the Chicago Bears to win by between 1-14 points.
If your book has that option pre-made then you can use that.
This line suggests that the Bears and Packers are equal on a neutral field, which our model disagrees with, placing the Bears as the superior team as a whole. This should be a close game but the Bears should come away with the win, in what is likely to be a close game and at well above evens there is lots of value on the 1-14 market.
The Bears have lost defensive coordinator Fangio since last season, from their unit which was #1 in points allowed, #3 in yards, #1 against the run, #3 in sacks, #1 in takeaways and #1 in opponent QB passer rating last season. The Bears new co-ordinator Chuck Pagano is back in the NFL after beating cancer and he should do great things with the talented defensive core he possesses, expect a more aggressive set of play-calling, as we saw from him in 2011 when he was last a defensive co-ordinator for the Ravens and widely regarded as one of the best in the game (he was then the colts head coach from 12-17). There is no reason why this unit cannot be the league’s premier defence once again and with the wealth of talent available to them, the aggressive play calling of Pagano will wreak havoc on opposing QBs.
On the other side the Packers, have brought in new head coach Matt LaFleur as an offensive mind to supplement Aaron Rodgers, who needs no introduction as one of the game’s premier QBs. With Adams as WR1 and Graham at TE and a solid O-line there are lots of nice pieces around Rodgers, who is hard to write off in any game. Jones and Williams at RB are both solid, although will struggle against this Bear’s D. I am expecting big things from Green Bay this season, however it will take time for LaFleur to exert his influence on the side.
Whilst you can never truly write off an Aaron Rodgers led side, expect Nagy, Trubisky and co to start off their season with a win in a hotly contested game.
Bears by a touchdown.
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